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发表于 2006-6-23 00:18:40
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我贴一点点自己总结的复习资料，财务管理，前面的内容我就考到了~~
Financial management:
One of the important contents in this course is the investment theory. It tells me about the capital investment decision. We should make our investment decision according to the following principles: net present value, pay-off period (pop), internal rate of return and profit index. In practice we always use discounted pay-off period as an index of decision making for that it takes time value of cash flow into account.
Now I will use a case to explain the investment theory:
Assume there is an investment with required initial investment of 1,000,000 Yuan. Net cash flow (NCFt) each year can be organized as follows:
Year (t) 0 1 2 3 4 5
NCFt -1,000,000 600,000 300,000 100,000 200,000 300,000
We also assume that the opportunity cost of capital (k) is 10%. This is the rate of return offered by a comparable investment such as bond. Considering the time value we definite the discount factor at time t as (1+k) t
Net present value is calculated by the formula
In this case, NPV=-1,000,000+600,000/ (1+0.1) +300,000/ (1+0.1)2+100,000/ (1+0.1)3
+200,000/ (1+0.1)4 +300,000/ (1+0.1)5 =191,399
Pay-off period: the period for how long it takes until the initial investment is paid back.
In calculation, pop is the value of t to make NPV≥0
IRR is the rate of return that equalizes NPV TO zero.
Profit index is the ratio of total present value of net cash flow and initial investment.
Rule of decision making: NPV＞0, PI＞1, IRR＞k, pop＜maturity of investment
Basic principles in financial management:
EMH the efficient-market hypothesis): states that all relevant information is fully and immediately reflected in a security's market price, thereby assuming that an investor will obtain an equilibrium rate of return. In other words, an investor should not expect to earn an abnormal return (above the market return) through either technical analysis or fundamental analysis. Three forms of efficient market hypothesis exist: weak form (stock prices reflect all past information in prices), semi-strong form (stock prices reflect all past and current publicly available information), and strong form (stock prices reflect all relevant information, including information not yet disclosed to the general public, such as insider information).
Risk and return trade-off theory: The principle that potential return rises with an increase in risk. Low levels of risk are associated with low potential returns, whereas high levels of risk are associated with high potential returns. In other words, the risk-return trade-off says that invested money can render higher profits only if it is subject to the possibility of being lost.
Three parts:
1. Portfolio theory: A theory on how risk-averse investors can construct portfolios in order to optimize market risk for expected returns, emphasizing that risk is an inherent part of higher reward. There are four basic steps involved in the portfolio construction: security valuation, asset allocation, portfolio optimization and performance measurement
2. Capital asset pricing model (CAPM): An economic theory that describes the relationship between risk and expected return, and serves as a model for the pricing of risky securities. The CAPM asserts that the only risk that is priced by rational investors is systematic risk, because that risk cannot be eliminated by diversification. The CAPM says that the expected return of a security or a portfolio is equal to the rate on a risk-free security plus a risk premium multiplied by the asset's systematic risk. Theory was invented by William Sharpe (1964) and John Lintner
3. Arbitrage pricing theory (APT) holds that the expected return of a financial asset can be modeled as a linear function of various macro-economic factors, where sensitivity to changes in each factor is represented by a factor specific beta coefficient. The model derived rate of return will then be used to price the asset correctly - the asset price should equal the expected end of period price discounted at the rate implied by model. If the price diverges, arbitrage should bring it back into line. The theory was initiated by the economist Stephen Ross.
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